IEA警告今年冬季能源价格可能出现飙升

据油价网7月3日报道， 国际能源署（IEA）的负责人表示，能源价格可能在今年冬季再次上涨，可能迫使政府对消费进行补贴。

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亚洲大国的经济复苏和北半球的严冬有可能导致能源需求攀升。

国际能源署的警告呼应了德国能源监管机构最近的信息，即能源危机尚未结束。

国际能源署负责人法蒂赫·比罗尔警告称，能源价格可能在今年冬季再次飙升。

在接受英国广播公司（BBC）采访时，法蒂赫·比罗尔表示，如果亚洲经济从疫情中的恢复并在今年晚些时候加速，而且北半球的冬季比去年更严寒，那么价格将会上涨。

如果发生这种情况，政府将需要再次介入，对能源消费进行补贴。

比罗尔告诉BBC说：“在亚洲大国经济非常强劲、大量购买市场上的能源，并且我们有一个严寒的冬季的情况下，我们可能会看到天然气价格出现强劲的上行压力，进而给消费者增加额外负担。”

此外，比罗尔表示，他不能排除冬季出现停电的可能性，这可能是“游戏的一部分”。

上个月，德国能源监管机构负责人克劳斯·穆勒对2023/2024年冬季发出了类似的警告。克劳斯·穆勒在接受当地媒体采访时表示，欧洲的能源危机尚未结束，如果冬季寒冷，供应可能无法满足需求。

穆勒在六月初对路透社表示：“就存储（罐）设施而言，我们现在与去年处于不同的水平......但最大的因素仍然是天气。”他补充说：“能源危机尚未结束。”

亚洲大国仍然是今年余下时间内将影响能源价格的最重要因素。

但是在政府支持的帮助下，工业活动可能加速，这将推高所有买家的价格。

加上去年异常温暖冬季的不太可能重现以及能源价格和供应的不确定性，情况变得更加不确定。

胡耀东 译自 油价网

原文如下：

IEA Warns Of A Spike In Energy Prices This Winter

The head of the International Energy Agency has said that energy prices could rise again this winter, potentially forcing governments to subsidize consumption.

A combination of the Asian biggest country economic recovery and a harsh winter in the northern hemisphere has the potential to send energy demand climbing.

The warning from the IEA echoes the recent message from Germany’s energy regulator that the energy crisis isn’t over yet.

Energy prices could spike again this winter, the head of the International Energy Agency has warned.

Speaking to the BBC, Fatih Birol said that if the Asian biggest country economic recovery from the pandemic accelerated later this year and the winter in the northern hemisphere was harsher than last year’s, prices would rise.

If that happens, governments would need to step in again and subsidize energy consumption, he said.

"In a scenario where the Chinese economy is very strong, buys a lot of energy from the markets, and we have a harsh winter, we may see strong upward pressure under natural gas prices, which in turn will put an extra burden on consumers," Birol told the BBC.

What’s more, Birol said he could not rule out blackouts in the winter, which could be “part of the game”.

Last month, the head of Germany’s energy regulator issued a similar warning for winter 2023/24. Speaking to local media, Klaus Mueller said the energy crisis in Europe was not over yet and if the winter was cold, supply could fall short of demand.

"When it comes to storage (tank) filling, we are now at a different level to last year ... But the biggest factor remains the weather," Mueller said in early June, as quoted by Reuters. "The energy crisis is not over yet," he added.

The Asian biggest country remains the single biggest factor that will influence energy prices for the remainder of the year.

But industrial activity might yet accelerate with the help of government support, and this would push prices higher for all buyers.

Add to this the doubtful likelihood of a repeat of last year’s unusually warm winter and the potential for energy price—and supply—uncertainty rises significantly.

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