天天快消息！今年夏天北美大部分地区将面临能源短缺风险

中国石化新闻网讯 据美国钻井网站2023年5月23日报道，北美电力公司(NERC)5月23日披露，今年夏天，在极端需求时期，北美三分之二的地区将面临能源短缺的风险。

根据NERC最近发布的夏季可靠性评估，中大陆ISO (MISO)、NPCC-新英格兰地区、NPCC-安大略省、SERC-Central、西南电力联营(SPP)、得克萨斯州(ERCOT)和美国西部互联地区“在更极端的夏季条件下将面临电力供应短缺的风险”。

(相关资料图)

在报告附带的一份声明中，NERC指出，由于广域高温事件可能导致需求超出正常水平，使资源和输电网络紧张，美国西部地区面临更高的风险，并强调，在SPP和MISO，风电输出将是满足正常夏季高峰和极端需求水平的关键，因为几乎没有过剩的企业产能。

NERC在声明中表示，ERCOT的干旱和高温风险可能会挑战系统资源，并可能导致紧急程序，包括在低风和高发电机停机期间需要运营商控制的负荷削减，并补充说，SERC中部地区预测峰值需求更高，供应能力更少，“给运营商在极端情况下保持储备带来挑战”。

NERC在声明中继续指出，新英格兰地区的可用容量低于去年，“导致系统运营商更有可能使用紧急程序来管理极端需求条件”。NERC在声明中警告说，在安大略省，延长的核电站翻新减少了可用容量，限制了管理高峰需求所需的系统储备。

NERC的可靠性评估经理马克·奥尔森在NERC的评论中说：“风能、太阳能和电池的增加和快速部署产生了积极的影响。”

“然而，发电机的退役继续增加与夏季极端气温相关的风险，如果夏季气温飙升，这将导致北美西部三分之二地区的潜在供应短缺。”奥尔森补充说。

最新的行动

5月早些时候，NERC宣布其已经发布了三级基本行动警报——为极端天气事件III做好寒冷天气准备。NERC当时指出，三级基本行动警报的目的是提高可靠性协调员、平衡当局、发电机所有者和输电运营商的准备程度，以降低2023—2024年冬季及以后的运行风险。

NERC强调，这个基本行动警报包含一组八项具体行动，NERC认为这些行动对电网所有者、运营商或用户的某些部分至关重要，以确保其可靠运行，并补充说，这是NERC第一次发布三级基本行动警报，这是NERC警报分类结构中最严重的级别。

早在4月份，NERC就透露，它已经向美国联邦能源管理委员会（FERC）提交了一份评估CIP-014可靠性标准的报告。NERC当时指出，该报告由FERC在2022年12月15日的命令中指示，要求NERC研究标准的适用性标准和风险评估的充分性，并评估是否应该为所有大型电力系统输电站、变电站和主要控制中心建立最低水平的物理安全保护。

NERC总裁兼首席执行官吉姆·罗伯在4月份的一份组织声明中表示：“鉴于物理安全威胁环境的加剧以及去年第四季度发生的攻击，这一评估非常重要。”

罗伯补充说：“我们的研究概述了加强物理安全标准和促进利益相关者积极参与的行动，以考虑额外的基于风险的增强措施。”

冬季风暴埃利奥特

去年12月，NERC宣布，NERC、NERC的区域实体和FERC将对冬季风暴埃利奥特期间发生的极端冬季天气条件下的大容量电力系统的运行进行联合调查。

NERC指出，当时的严寒天气导致停电，影响了全美数百万个的电力客户。NERC表示，虽然大部分停电是由于天气影响了当地公用事业公司运营的配电设施，但美国东南部部分地区的公用事业公司被迫进行滚动停电，其他地区的大电力系统也受到了很大的压力。

罗布当时表示：“这场风暴突显了重大极端天气事件(过去11年来第五次重大冬季天气事件)日益频繁，也突显了电力部门改变其规划方案和做好极端事件准备的必要性。”

NERC将自己描述为一个非营利性的国际监管机构，其使命是确保有效和高效地降低电网可靠性和安全性的风险。NERC的职责范围包括美国大陆、加拿大和墨西哥下加利福尼亚州北部。

NERC是北美电力可靠性组织，受美国FERC和加拿大政府当局的监督。NERC的网站强调，其管辖范围包括为近4亿人提供服务的大型电力系统的用户、所有者和运营商。

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

Most of North America at Risk of Energy Shortfalls This Summer

Two thirds of North America is at risk of energy shortfalls this summer during periods of extreme demand, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) has revealed.

According to the NERC’s Summer Reliability Assessment, which was released recently, the Midcontinent ISO (MISO), NPCC-New England, NPCC-Ontario, SERC-Central, Southwest Power Pool (SPP), Texas (ERCOT), and U.S. Western Interconnection areas “face risks of electricity supply shortfalls during periods of more extreme summer conditions”.

In a statement accompanying the report, NERC noted that areas in the U.S. West are at elevated risk due to wide-area heat events that can drive above-normal demand and strain resources and the transmission network and highlighted that, in SPP and MISO, wind energy output will be key to meeting normal summer peak and extreme demand levels due to little excess firm capacity.

The risk of drought and high temperatures in ERCOT may challenge system resources and may result in emergency procedures, including the need for operator-controlled load shedding during periods of low wind and high generator outages, NERC said in the statement, adding that the SERC Central region is forecasting higher peak demand and less supply capacity, “creating challenges for operators to maintain reserves in extreme scenarios”.

NERC went on to note in the statement that New England has lower available capacity than last year, “resulting in a higher likelihood of system operators using emergency procedures to manage extreme demand conditions”. In Ontario, extended nuclear refurbishment has reduced available capacity, limiting system reserves needed to manage peak demand, NERC warned in the statement.

“Increased, rapid deployment of wind, solar and batteries have made a positive impact,” Mark Olson, NERC’s manager of Reliability Assessments, said in a NERC comment.

“However, generator retirements continue to increase the risks associated with extreme summer temperatures, which factors into potential supply shortages in the western two-thirds of North America if summer temperatures spike,” he added.

Recent Actions

Earlier this month, NERC announced that it had issued the Level 3 Essential Actions alert - Cold Weather Preparations for Extreme Weather Events III. The purpose of the Level 3 Alert is to increase the readiness of reliability coordinators, balancing authorities, generator owners, and transmission operators for mitigating operational risk for winter 2023–2024 and beyond, the organization noted at the time.

The alert contains a set of eight specific actions that NERC determined to be essential for certain segments of owners, operators, or users of the grid to undertake to ensure its reliable operation, the organization highlighted, adding that this is the first time that NERC has issued a Level 3, which it said is the highest severity level in NERC’s alert classification structure.

Back in April, NERC revealed that it had filed a report evaluating the CIP-014 Reliability Standard with FERC. The report, which was directed by FERC in a December 15, 2022, order, called for NERC to study the applicability criteria of the standard and the adequacy of the risk assessment and to assess whether a minimum level of physical security protections should be established for all bulk power system transmission stations, substations, and primary control centers, NERC noted at the time.

“This evaluation was important given the heightened physical security threat environment and the high profile attacks which occurred in the fourth quarter of 2022,” Jim Robb, NERC President and CEO, said in an organization statement in April.

“Our study outlines actions to strengthen the physical security standard and foster robust stakeholder engagement to consider additional risk-based enhancements,” he added.

Winter Storm Elliott

In December last year, NERC announced that it, NERC’s regional entities, and FERC, would open a joint inquiry into the operations of the bulk power system during the extreme winter weather conditions that occurred during Winter Storm Elliott.

NERC noted that the time that the severe cold weather contributed to power outages affecting millions of electricity customers across the United States. Although most of these outages were due to weather impacts on electric distribution facilities operated by local utilities, utilities in parts of the southeast were forced to engage in rolling blackouts and the bulk power system in other regions was significantly stressed, NERC stated.

“This storm underscores the increasing frequency of significant extreme weather events (the fifth major winter event in the last 11 years) and underscores the need for the electric sector to change its planning scenarios and preparations for extreme events,” Robb said at the time.

NERC describes itself as a not-for-profit international regulatory authority whose mission is to assure the effective and efficient reduction of risks to the reliability and security of the grid. NERC’s area of responsibility spans the continental U.S., Canada, and the northern portion of Baja California, Mexico.

The organization is the Electric Reliability Organization for North America, subject to oversight by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and governmental authorities in Canada. Its jurisdiction includes users, owners, and operators of the bulk power system, which serves nearly 400 million people, NERC’s website highlights.

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